Understanding the World Bank’s Strategy in the Islamic Emirate Afghanistan
This paper seeks to (a) estimate the World Bank’s operational footprint in the economy of the Islamic Emirate Afghanistan (b) asses the current World Bank’s operational and financial strategy and (c) present some suggestions on our proactive response to this strategy. DAIMG would be grateful if this paper is forwarded to the leadership of the Ministry of Finance, Da Bank Afghan and the Ministry of Planning.
- The World Bank’s Footprints
The World Bank working in close cooperation with several aid agencies has been operationally active in Afghanistan for over two decades. It was a key formulator and an important implementer of the macroeconomic and investment strategy of the ghaddar governments of 2002-2021. Thus it was a major facilitator of the imperialist war against the mujahideen.
As of 15th August 2021 the World Bank group in association with the imperialist financial Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) was financing 29 projects in the health, agriculture, hydropower, construction, higher education, public private partnership development, fiscal reform support, digitalization citizens’ mobilization, payment distribution, land administration, financial reconstructing, water management, gas transmission and development policy formation areas.
As of 15th August 2021 the World Bank in association with most other imperialist funded agencies suspended financial support to all its 29 projects and this suspension remained operational for a period of about 10 months. However up to January 2023, only one project the Central Asia South Asia Regional Power Project has been activated. Even in this case disbursement to Afghanistan has been suspended[1] some of the institutional controls of the 2002-21 World Bank program remained in place. This includes some Community Development Centers, farmers’ assistance, health sector delivery payments networks etc.
Total investment in the 29 suspended projects as of January 2023 amounted to US $ 4.6 billion with the World Bank body International Development Assistance IDA contributing $ 2.2 billion and ARTP another $2.2 billion[2]. World Bank/ARTP financing was a main source of national budget resources under the ghaddar rule service delivery in the agriculture, community development, health and education sectors depended to a significant extent on World Bank/ARTP funding. World Bank/ARTP also funded infrastructure projects (transport, digital services and telecommunication as did the Asian Development Bank). ADB and the Islamic Development Bank. This funding also ceased in August 2015 Institutional development, targeted both public sector management as well as government level community organization. Health sector investments were particularly effected by the creation of a sector specific monitoring and outcome assessment system. Community development also focused on the organization of irrigation schemes.
The revenue management and the Public Financial Management systems partly constituted by the World Bank continue to remain operational as has the Third Party Monitoring systems established by ARTP. The Third Party Monitoring System (TPM) has become the main source of data gathering and information sabotage by the World Bank during 2022-23.
Since March 2022 the World Bank has been permitted by the imperialist governments to invest in the health, education, livelihood and agriculture sectors. Under the new initiative projects include
1. Health emergency response
2. Community rehabilitation and livelihood
3. Food security
4. Education response
5. NGO capacity building
UN agencies are initially providing $ 900 million for implementation these projects to the World Bank and associated agencies. The Economic recovery for Afghanistan document estimates that $ 1.3 billion funding is required during 2023 an extension of the program to cover financial and private sector projects is strongly recommended.
ARP (effectively an arm of the World Bank) is the world’s largest multi-donor fund. ARTP funded $12.3 billion on budget financing for the ghaddar governments during 2002-2021. America dominates the decision making process within the ARTF management system.
- The World Bank’s Strategy during 2002-2021
During the ghaddar rule (2002-2021) the World Bank was principally concerned to broaden the popular base of ghaddar rule and to weaken the mass support of the mujahideen. The World Bank like other imperialist agencies failed to do this both through its macroeconomic management and also its project initiatives. The macro policy failure is evident from the high and rising level of corruption of the ghaddar administration and the comprehensive collapse of the government system in Afghanistan in 2021. In an evaluation study of the performance of 25 out of the 29 World Bank projects several have barely been classified as unsuccessful[3].
The World Bank is in the process of crafting a new imperialist interventionist strategy in Afghanistan. This assessment is likely to be based on an appreciation of the reasons for failure of the strategy for 2002-21 (and its many revisions). As the World Bank understands them these failures are as follow.
In June 2023 the World Bank does not see a need for in revisiting causes of the failure of its macroeconomic policy interventions. It does not envisage a legitimation of the Islamic regime nor does it envisage on budget support to the Islamic revolutionary government[4]. It does however speculate about cooperation with Da Bank Afghanistan and the Public Financial Management System. The short to medium term World Bank/ARTF strategy is likely to remain focused on project financing in sectors especially those where intervention can serve as a means for mass mobilization against the Islamic government.
To return to an analysis of reasons for World Bank financial, project failures the following have been identified:
1. Project design did not accurately take into account the changing political economy context in which it functioned, Risk management was sub optimal. Future project design should be contextualized by political economy analysis and risk management methods must be incorporated in both design and implementation of project deliveries.
2. Risk and resilience analysis did not identify triggers and checkpoints for enabling program adjustment.
3. Programs and projects were not often focused on suitable locales and districts.
4. Changes in poverty indicators were not fully taken into account in determining project/program priorities
5. The only RAA (risk assessment analysis) was finalized too late i.e. in March 2021 and its findings could not be reflected in program design
6. Project pre-appraisal was inadequate. Shifts in political economy contexts during project implementation were not effectively evaluated.
7. The political economy work underlying project/program design was inadequate. Political instrumentalization of the program was inadequate. Project phasing was also inadequate.
8. Projects involving environment and social effect evaluation were not identified.
9. Financial sector and private sector projects were too complex as was the documentation for the digitalization project.
10. Relatively successful community level intervention in the health sector and the public financial management system could not be linked to the operations of the ghaddar administration which remained both weak and corrupt. Projects outsourcing was inadequate. Programs were not effectively blended i.e. involving government institutions, World Bank delivery networks and clients.
11. The program did not foresee and therefore did not plan for a mujahideen comprehensive takeover.
12. Direct payment system to clients/contractors/ community were not effective.
13. The Third Party Monitoring System was overburdened, while effective overall, it was not project focused.
14. Project fragmentation occurred and could have been avoided. There was a tendency to neglect long term issues and prioritizing tangible results in emergency situation. The World Bank “did not stay the course” to build viable institutions.
2.1 The World Bank’s Strategy after March 2022
The decision of the World Bank’s Board to channel $ 900 million for projects in the health, food security, community development, education and NGO capacity building sectors indicates that the World Bank has decided to resume operating on a relatively modest scale in the IEA[5]. The World Bank is a principal agent for the exercise of soft power by the imperialists. In this situation DAIMG seeks to assess the principal elements of the current overall program strategy of the World Bank (without reference to projects being financed under this overall program)
1- Political economy and risk resilience services are likely to be more frequently used in program and project design and implementation.
2- Project “ring fencing” i.e. insulating program operations from government administration mechanism will be pursued in most sectors. This will involve use of local and institutional contract in project implementation units and revival of network training assistance program, special efforts will be made to recruit government employees as World Bank contract workers. The Third Party Monitoring System – the main World Bank mechanism for systemic spying and espionage will be greatly expanded.
3- Strong efforts are likely to be made to develop a “blended” system in specific sectors of the economy. The finance sector will be especially targeted and an effort will be made to develop operational partnerships with Da Bank Afghanistan, commercial banks and other financial institutions, Health, education and food delivery system will also be targeted. Third Party assessment of high risk projects is likely to become a key feature of the World Bank program building strategy.
4- Program feasibility may take account of the extent to which the state system has been penetrated through blending. Efforts will be made through contracting and policy dialogue to create World Bank sympathizers (specially technical efforts) within the Islamic State administration. The World Bank has been very successful in penetration in the Chinese state and Communist Party administrative structure since 1991. Non-revolutionary Muslims technical experts (both from Afghanistan and abroad) will be used for this purpose.
5- Principally however the World Bank (and all other imperialist partners will look for allies and partners outside the state administration.
6- The World Bank envisages the eventual collapse of the Islamic government and will carefully phase its program to achieve this end by gradually and systematically separating the masses from the Islamic government through the provision of basic services (food, health, education, finance, community development etc.). If it succeeds in doing this its programs will expand, If not, then it will gradually withdraw from Afghanistan. Assessing progress towards this objective (called Risk Resilience Assessment) and its accuracy will be the primary determinant of program growth and implementation. This will determine financial trenching to specific program initiatives.
The World Bank is not the only instrument of imperialist soft power in Afghanistan, It will include cooperation with the system – specially in relation to the operationalization of the cash and voucher delivery system to food deficient households. FAO and WHO are the World Bank trained and trusted partners in the crafting and delivery of imperialist policies throughout the world. All imperialist agencies – the World Bank, FAO, WHO, UNICEF, international NGOs – have the same ultimate objective – the overthrow of the Islamic government and the deconstruction of Islamic systemic dominance. So cooperation among them is natural (though not easy)
7- Research studies and Third Party Monitoring papers will play a crucial role in determining program conception and implementation. The World Bank’s Afghanistan Future’s Project is the key instrument in this regard and the role of the Third Party Monitoring mechanism has been greatly expanded to supervision, support and data analysis. Program design will be greatly influenced by the work done by Third Party monitoring institutions and contractors.
8- The World Bank seeks to build an alternative economic administration system gradually by a) isolating the Islamic government from the economic base. For this it is targeting the poor through the delivery of food, health, education and community organization services and b) by penetrating state administration specially Da Bank Afghanistan. It has adopted a “bottom up” approach to promote its outcome delivery capacity. This “bottom up” approach seeks to link with the local government networks at the district level in selected areas. Driving a wedge between local and provincial and central administration structures is likely to be key element of World Bank program.
9- The service delivery system at the mass level by the World Bank (and other imperialist agencies) consists of a network of “humanitarian NGOs”. They coordinate the administration of imperialist assistance at the mass level. In 2022 there were about 160 such NGOs (about 44 percent international NGOs). There were about 50 cash and voucher working group partners of the World Bank and the UN system. However in 2022 according to a World Bank survey only 5 percent households received supplies from this “Cash and Voucher (CVA) project provided by imperialist agencies for distribution among the masses in about two thirds of all Afghan districts in Afghanistan. A major source of CVA funding is the WFP. WFP has partnered with several financial institutions and remittance exchange companies. The World Bank is also active with social partners in providing work to food assistance, promoting small sector employment and waste management programs. In all these programs it is actively recruiting institutional partners and initial reports suggest that it is moderately successful in expanding its institutional outreach.
3. Response to the World Bank Strategy
3.1 Our Policy Perspective
DAIMG has been consistently arguing that sustaining a nationally self-reliant non-capitalist, jihadi economy is vitally important for the continual systemic dominance of Islamic rule. If this is accepted we must recognize that the current World Bank’s “bottom up” strategy is seriously undermining our attempt to consolidate Islamic governance in Afghanistan. The World Bank and all other imperialist humanitarian agencies are seeking to take advantage of our present difficulties – the prevailing relatively high levels of deprivation and food scarcity specially – to compel our masses and induce them to revolt against the Islamic regime, and the Islamic social system.
By the grace and mercy of Allah we have defeated the imperialists in the battleground. Now the imperialists are trying to compensate for this defeat by the use of their soft power through the World Bank and other UN imperialist agencies. Our policymakers must know that the World Bank is not merely a technical agency. It worked hand in glove with the ghaddar governments during 2002-2021 and its current emphasis on political economy concerns clearly shows that it remains committed to the imperialist task of subverting and sabotaging Islamic rule in Afghanistan.
This means that we must remain unambiguously committed to defeating the World Bank’s bottom up strategy of isolating the Islamic administration from its mass base. We recognize that defeating the soft power initiatives of the imperialists is likely to be a time consuming process. Thus our dependencies on imperialist humanitarian food support can only gradually be reduced but this does not mean that we are forced to tolerate the expansion of an imperialist funded delivery network which undermines the legitimacy of Islamic rule. Our policy perspective must envisage a gradual phase out not immediate abrupt termination of imperialist financing at the mass level.
3.2. Macroeconomic Issues
To contextualize imperialist financing (over say a three year period) the following macroeconomic initiatives must be taken.
a. The institution of system wide macroeconomic planning be introduced. Alhamdulillah 2023 is seeing a heightened revival of economic activity. There will be positive growth (of at least 3 to 4 percent) this year. Price inflation has been dampened, food productivity is up, the exchange rate has stabilized, and corruption has been effectively controlled. The basis for the introduction of comprehensive planning has therefore been laid. Planning – the setting of sector, sub-sector and major enterprise level production, investment and employment targets and articulation of strategies to achieve these targets – is essential for the achievement of national goals. It is also necessary for insulating the private sector from imperialist policy subjugation. Without effective plan formulation and implementation the Islamic government will necessarily lose control of market structures.
b. The establishment of a nationwide supply chain for the production and distribution of grains and other essential food products from surplus to deficit regions and for the exercise of price control in grain markets. This should be used to replace and delegitimize the food supply chains established by imperialist financers and to reduce mass dependence on imperialist financed supply of essential commodities.
c. The establishment of a nationwide Dawah Majlis with branches at enterprise, local and district
levels to promote Islamic values (Sabr, Qana’at, infaq) at the mass level and to defeat important propaganda and sabotage.
d. Financial sector restructuring. Penetrating the financial sector is a key policy objective of the imperialists – the World Food Program uses many national financial channels for the distribution of cash and vouchers among the masses. This is very dangerous for the Islamic regime since it leads to a dollarization of the economy. To counter imperialist attempts at penetrating the financial sector the following steps are essential
1. State control over the issuance and circulation of currencies. DBA should be the sole source of currency issue. All foreign currencies in circulation must be converted into the sole legal currency unit the Afghani.
2. Nationalization of the commercial banks and all other financial institutions and the formulation and implementation of currency and credit planning.
3. Comprehensive exchange rate management. All foreign currency inflows (rupee, toman, dollar) must be surrendered to DBA which must convert them into Afghani at a government determined exchange rate[6].
3.3 Short run Responses to the World Bank’s “bottom up” Strategy
1. Objective: to phase out dependence on World Bank support over a three year period (2024-2027)
2. Measures: Establishment of a unit within the Ministry of Planning to monitor and document all aspects of the World Bank activities in Afghanistan and to continuously revise the national strategy for defeating the imperialist strategy for separating the Islamic government from the masses through establishing channels of mass contact by imperialist agencies.
3. Assessing the Third Party Monitoring to identify the World Bank’s data and information supplies and trough legal and administrative measures to dismantle the Third Party Monitoring System by December 2024 or earlier if possible[7], To trace local suppliers of information (through mass surveys such as the Gender Monitoring Survey and to take legal and administrative action against participants in such surveys and information producing activities.
4. To seek to deconstruct the local NGO network which serves as World Bank project partner. Special attention must be given to dismantle and close association linked to World Bank program
5. Immediate closure through legal means of all World Bank and UN projects in the community rehabilitation and livelihood, NGO capacity building and education sectors. This may be achieved by end of 2023.
6. Ensuring that cash delivery by UN agencies and the World Bank takes place only through the nationalized commercial banking system which converts dollar into Afghani at government determined exchange rates before distribution. All other channels for cash distribution should be closed by end of 2023.
7. To discourage those seeking employment in the World Bank/NGO institutional networks through dawah activities, income and wealth taxation schemes and provision of alternative employment opportunities in the national planning system.
8. World Bank/UN projects in the food security and infrastructure (transport, telecommunication, water management etc.) must also be subjected to heavy taxation.
9- No government employee or contractor at central, provincial, district or local level be allowed to be an employee, consultant or a contractor of the World Bank. Strict legal action should be taken against such persons.
10- Most Important: World Bank/UN program reach must be denied access to masses through prohibition of participation in surveys and information provision etc. It must be restrained corrupting women through bringing them into the public sphere is the main imperialist strategy for secularizing Afghan society and eroding the cultural traditions, mass base of the Islamic state.
During the phase out period (2024-27) the World Bank and the UN agencies must be forced to recognize that if they are to continue operations in the country they must submit to a nationally determined social strategy. The Islamic state’s legal and administrative authority cannot be ignored or bypassed. They must deal in policy dialogue within the main political and ideological leadership of the Islamic state. An attempt must be made to prevent the imperialist institutions to carve out a niche (through involvement with Da Bank Afghanistan and the evolving local government system) within the Islamic state which submits to their ideology and becomes an instrument for the articulation of their operational strategy for creating a cleavage between the Islamic state and the Afghan masses.
Dr Younus Qadri
Dr. Muhammad Tahir
Dr Muhammad Aamir Hussain
Professor Aijaz Rasheed
The situation may have changed during the last six months but information on this is not available to DAIMG. ↑
Other imperialist trust funds have invested $ 174 million in these projects. ↑
World Bank (2003) Through the Looking Glass: Lesson from the World Bank’s Afghanistan Project Portfolio Report No. 178502 ↑
Like all other imperialist agencies the World Bank document continues to …to the Afghan Islamic Government as the Interim Taliban Administration. ↑
DAIMG is not aware of current World Bank projects in Afghanistan and our focal person is requested to supply with information and data about these projects. ↑
Details of these macroeconomic policies are present in the DAIMG document Developing A Planning System for the Islamic Emirate Afghanistan. ↑
World Bank (2022) Gender Monitoring Survey Basic Unit Report ↑